tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Seattle → St Louis via Chicago: arrives on time 31%

  1. 15:28 SEA → 22:00 ORD
    AA 2524 · American · 4h 32m · 60% on time, 4.2% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 23:00 ORD → 00:16 STL +1 day
    AA 1004 · American · 1h 16m · 58% on time, 6.9% cancelled

Total trip 6h 48m, scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection60%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 40% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time31%First flight not cancelled (4.2% are) × connection made (60%) × second flight not cancelled (6.9% are) and within 15 minutes (58%).
Total trip6h 48mSEA 15:28 to STL 00:16, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.