tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Seattle → Kansas City via Chicago: arrives on time 29%

  1. 15:28 SEA → 22:00 ORD
    AA 2524 · American · 4h 32m · 60% on time, 4.2% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 23:00 ORD → 00:48 MCI +1 day
    AA 6215 · American, flown by SkyWest · 1h 48m · 57% on time, 9.5% cancelled

Total trip 7h 20m, scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Times are local. Both flew on 26 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection60%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 40% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time29%First flight not cancelled (4.2% are) × connection made (60%) × second flight not cancelled (9.5% are) and within 15 minutes (57%).
Total trip7h 20mSEA 15:28 to MCI 00:48, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.