tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Seattle → Miami via Philadelphia: arrives on time 39%

  1. 12:44 SEA → 21:06 PHL
    AA 2534 · American · 5h 25m · 80% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 49m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:55 PHL → 00:52 MIA +1 day
    AA 2936 · American · 2h 57m · 61% on time, 8.3% cancelled

Total trip 9h 08m, scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Times are local. Both flew on 53 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 4 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 49m layover.
Arrives on time39%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (8.3% are) and within 15 minutes (61%).
Total trip9h 08mSEA 12:44 to MIA 00:52, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.