tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Kahului → San Francisco via Los Angeles: arrives on time 60%

  1. 13:14 OGG → 21:40 LAX
    AA 254 · American · 5h 26m · 81% on time, 0.3% cancelled
  2. 52m layover in Los Angeles (LAX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:32 LAX → 23:59 SFO
    AA 6510 · American, flown by SkyWest · 1h 27m · 81% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h ahead of Kahului). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection75%The first flight arrived more than 7 minutes late on 25% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 52m layover.
Arrives on time60%First flight not cancelled (0.3% are) × connection made (75%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (81%).
Total trip7h 45mOGG 13:14 to SFO 23:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.