tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Los Angeles via San Francisco: arrives on time 42%

  1. 06:29 ORD → 09:19 SFO
    AA 2543 · American · 4h 40m · 84% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in San Francisco (SFO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:09 SFO → 11:49 LAX
    AA 6428 · American, flown by SkyWest · 1h 40m · 59% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 20m, scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 2 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time42%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (59%).
Total trip7h 20mORD 06:29 to LAX 11:49, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.