tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Washington via Chicago: arrives on time 34%

  1. 10:25 SFO → 16:59 ORD
    AA 2543 · American · 4h 29m · 71% on time, 4.2% cancelled
  2. 57m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:56 ORD → 20:59 DCA
    AA 1787 · American · 2h 04m · 55% on time, 8.1% cancelled

Total trip 7h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time34%First flight not cancelled (4.2% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (8.1% are) and within 15 minutes (55%).
Total trip7h 35mSFO 10:25 to DCA 20:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.