tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Indianapolis via Chicago: arrives on time 28%

  1. 10:25 SFO → 16:59 ORD
    AA 2543 · American · 4h 29m · 71% on time, 4.2% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:50 ORD → 20:00 IND
    AA 1951 · American · 1h 11m · 47% on time, 5.6% cancelled

Total trip 6h 36m, scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection65%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 35% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time28%First flight not cancelled (4.2% are) × connection made (65%) × second flight not cancelled (5.6% are) and within 15 minutes (47%).
Total trip6h 36mSFO 10:25 to IND 20:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.