tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Charlotte via Chicago: arrives on time 32%

  1. 10:25 SFO → 16:59 ORD
    AA 2543 · American · 4h 29m · 71% on time, 4.2% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:45 ORD → 20:59 CLT
    AA 2917 · American · 2h 14m · 59% on time, 3.3% cancelled

Total trip 7h 34m, scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection59%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 41% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time32%First flight not cancelled (4.2% are) × connection made (59%) × second flight not cancelled (3.3% are) and within 15 minutes (59%).
Total trip7h 34mSFO 10:25 to CLT 20:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.