tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → New York via Phoenix: arrives on time 43%

  1. 18:55 SFO → 21:00 PHX
    AA 2544 · American · 2h 05m · 57% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:50 PHX → 05:47 JFK +1 day
    AA 1587 · American · 4h 57m · 87% on time, 0.7% cancelled

Total trip 7h 52m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection50%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 50% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time43%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (50%) × second flight not cancelled (0.7% are) and within 15 minutes (87%).
Total trip7h 52mSFO 18:55 to JFK 05:47, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.