tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Boston via Phoenix: arrives on time 25%

  1. 12:18 SFO → 14:29 PHX
    AA 2548 · American · 2h 11m · 52% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:15 PHX → 23:14 BOS
    AA 567 · American · 4h 59m · 70% on time, 0.5% cancelled

Total trip 7h 56m, scheduled departure to arrival (Boston is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection36%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 64% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time25%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (36%) × second flight not cancelled (0.5% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip7h 56mSFO 12:18 to BOS 23:14, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.