Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026
San Francisco → St Louis via Chicago: arrives on time 27%
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14:36 SFO → 21:26 ORDAA 2550 · American · 4h 51m · 37% on time, 2.8% cancelled
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1h 34m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
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23:00 ORD → 00:16 STL +1 dayAA 1004 · American · 1h 16m · 58% on time, 6.9% cancelled
Total trip 7h 40m, scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 2 h ahead of San Francisco). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.
Makes the connection51%The first flight arrived more than 49 minutes late on 49% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 34m layover.
Arrives on time27%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (51%) × second flight not cancelled (6.9% are) and within 15 minutes (58%).
Total trip7h 40mSFO 14:36 to STL 00:16, layover included
Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.
Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.