Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026
San Francisco → Minneapolis via Chicago: arrives on time 25%
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14:36 SFO → 21:26 ORDAA 2550 · American · 4h 51m · 37% on time, 2.8% cancelled
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1h 10m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
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22:36 ORD → 00:22 MSP +1 dayAA 4472 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 46m · 73% on time, 14.3% cancelled
Total trip 7h 46m, scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 2 h ahead of San Francisco). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.
Makes the connection41%The first flight arrived more than 25 minutes late on 59% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 10m layover.
Arrives on time25%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (41%) × second flight not cancelled (14.3% are) and within 15 minutes (73%).
Total trip7h 46mSFO 14:36 to MSP 00:22, layover included
Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.
Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.