tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Houston → Orlando via Philadelphia: arrives on time 42%

  1. 07:01 IAH → 11:23 PHL
    AA 2561 · American · 3h 22m · 73% on time, 6.6% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 12:16 PHL → 14:59 MCO
    AA 2065 · American · 2h 43m · 66% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 6h 58m, scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 1 h ahead of Houston). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time42%First flight not cancelled (6.6% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (66%).
Total trip6h 58mIAH 07:01 to MCO 14:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.