tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Raleigh/Durham via Los Angeles: arrives on time 35%

  1. 20:11 SFO → 21:49 LAX
    AA 2567 · American · 1h 38m · 60% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Los Angeles (LAX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:39 LAX → 06:34 RDU +1 day
    AA 1852 · American · 5h 01m · 76% on time, 2.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 29m, scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Times are local. Both flew on 31 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection47%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 53% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (47%) × second flight not cancelled (2.0% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip7h 29mSFO 20:11 to RDU 06:34, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.