tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Philadelphia via Los Angeles: arrives on time 34%

  1. 20:11 SFO → 21:49 LAX
    AA 2567 · American · 1h 38m · 60% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 57m layover in Los Angeles (LAX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:46 LAX → 07:00 PHL +1 day
    AA 3276 · American · 5h 14m · 63% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 7h 49m, scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Times are local. Both flew on 35 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection56%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 44% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time34%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (56%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (63%).
Total trip7h 49mSFO 20:11 to PHL 07:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.