tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Charlotte → Madison via Philadelphia: arrives on time 45%

  1. 13:02 CLT → 14:50 PHL
    AA 2573 · American · 1h 48m · 76% on time, 1.5% cancelled
  2. 59m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:49 PHL → 17:22 MSN
    AA 5532 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 33m · 67% on time, 9.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 20m, scheduled departure to arrival (Madison is 1 h behind Charlotte). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection75%The first flight arrived more than 14 minutes late on 25% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 59m layover.
Arrives on time45%First flight not cancelled (1.5% are) × connection made (75%) × second flight not cancelled (9.9% are) and within 15 minutes (67%).
Total trip5h 20mCLT 13:02 to MSN 17:22, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.