tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Santa Ana → Miami via Chicago: arrives on time 41%

  1. 07:45 SNA → 14:08 ORD
    AA 2590 · American · 4h 23m · 88% on time, 1.1% cancelled
  2. 3h 52m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:00 ORD → 22:17 MIA
    AA 2690 · American · 3h 17m · 45% on time, 6.9% cancelled

Total trip 11h 32m, scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 187 minutes late on 2% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 52m layover.
Arrives on time41%First flight not cancelled (1.1% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (6.9% are) and within 15 minutes (45%).
Total trip11h 32mSNA 07:45 to MIA 22:17, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.