tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → St Louis via Chicago: arrives on time 73%

  1. 06:00 SFO → 12:31 ORD
    AA 2614 · American · 4h 27m · 92% on time, 2.5% cancelled
  2. 2h 36m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:07 ORD → 16:40 STL
    AA 4537 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 33m · 80% on time, 4.2% cancelled

Total trip 8h 40m, scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 2 h ahead of San Francisco). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 111 minutes late on 2% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 36m layover.
Arrives on time73%First flight not cancelled (2.5% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (4.2% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip8h 40mSFO 06:00 to STL 16:40, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.