tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Salt Lake City → Fayetteville/Springdale/ via Chicago: arrives on time 49%

  1. 13:28 SLC → 17:59 ORD
    AA 2616 · American · 3h 34m · 73% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 01m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:00 ORD → 21:00 XNA
    AA 4105 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 00m · 70% on time, 1.3% cancelled

Total trip 6h 32m, scheduled departure to arrival (Fayetteville/Springdale/ is 1 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 16 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 01m layover.
Arrives on time49%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (1.3% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip6h 32mSLC 13:28 to XNA 21:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.