tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → San Jose via Phoenix: arrives on time 59%

  1. 15:22 ORD → 17:05 PHX
    AA 2624 · American · 3h 43m · 70% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 3h 46m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:51 PHX → 22:41 SJC
    AA 1197 · American · 1h 50m · 62% on time, 1.3% cancelled

Total trip 9h 19m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 2 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection96%The first flight arrived more than 181 minutes late on 4% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 46m layover.
Arrives on time59%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (96%) × second flight not cancelled (1.3% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip9h 19mORD 15:22 to SJC 22:41, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.