tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Santa Barbara via Phoenix: arrives on time 67%

  1. 15:22 ORD → 17:05 PHX
    AA 2624 · American · 3h 43m · 70% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 3h 22m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:27 PHX → 21:58 SBA
    AA 1731 · American · 1h 31m · 71% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 36m, scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Barbara is 2 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection94%The first flight arrived more than 157 minutes late on 6% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 22m layover.
Arrives on time67%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (94%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (71%).
Total trip8h 36mORD 15:22 to SBA 21:58, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.