tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → Minneapolis via Chicago: arrives on time 41%

  1. 15:05 SMF → 21:35 ORD
    AA 2627 · American · 4h 30m · 67% on time, 1.6% cancelled
  2. 1h 01m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:36 ORD → 00:22 MSP +1 day
    AA 4472 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 46m · 73% on time, 14.3% cancelled

Total trip 7h 17m, scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 16 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 01m layover.
Arrives on time41%First flight not cancelled (1.6% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (14.3% are) and within 15 minutes (73%).
Total trip7h 17mSMF 15:05 to MSP 00:22, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.