tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → New York via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 33%

  1. 11:02 SMF → 16:35 DFW
    AA 2633 · American · 3h 33m · 75% on time, 3.6% cancelled
  2. 1h 08m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:43 DFW → 22:30 JFK
    AA 1203 · American · 3h 51m · 46% on time, 5.6% cancelled

Total trip 8h 32m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Times are local. Both flew on 47 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection78%The first flight arrived more than 23 minutes late on 22% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 08m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (3.6% are) × connection made (78%) × second flight not cancelled (5.6% are) and within 15 minutes (46%).
Total trip8h 32mSMF 11:02 to JFK 22:30, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.