tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → Chicago via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 27%

  1. 11:02 SMF → 16:35 DFW
    AA 2633 · American · 3h 33m · 75% on time, 3.6% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:35 DFW → 20:29 ORD
    AA 1893 · American · 2h 55m · 41% on time, 6.9% cancelled

Total trip 7h 28m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Times are local. Both flew on 47 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection75%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 25% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time27%First flight not cancelled (3.6% are) × connection made (75%) × second flight not cancelled (6.9% are) and within 15 minutes (41%).
Total trip7h 28mSMF 11:02 to ORD 20:29, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.