tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → Minneapolis via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 28%

  1. 14:55 SMF → 20:28 DFW
    AA 2634 · American · 3h 33m · 63% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 02m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:30 DFW → 23:57 MSP
    AA 3149 · American · 2h 27m · 44% on time, 3.3% cancelled

Total trip 7h 02m, scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Times are local. Both flew on 53 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection66%The first flight arrived more than 17 minutes late on 34% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 02m layover.
Arrives on time28%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (66%) × second flight not cancelled (3.3% are) and within 15 minutes (44%).
Total trip7h 02mSMF 14:55 to MSP 23:57, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.