tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → Austin via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 40%

  1. 14:55 SMF → 20:28 DFW
    AA 2634 · American · 3h 33m · 63% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 07m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:35 DFW → 22:39 AUS
    AA 972 · American · 1h 04m · 61% on time, 4.8% cancelled

Total trip 5h 44m, scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 22 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 07m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (4.8% are) and within 15 minutes (61%).
Total trip5h 44mSMF 14:55 to AUS 22:39, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.