tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Minneapolis via Philadelphia: arrives on time 75%

  1. 00:59 SFO → 09:31 PHL
    AA 2635 · American · 5h 32m · 82% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 09m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:40 PHL → 12:38 MSP
    AA 5658 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 58m · 88% on time, 2.6% cancelled

Total trip 9h 39m, scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 2 h ahead of San Francisco). Times are local. Both flew on 26 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection90%The first flight arrived more than 24 minutes late on 10% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 09m layover.
Arrives on time75%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (90%) × second flight not cancelled (2.6% are) and within 15 minutes (88%).
Total trip9h 39mSFO 00:59 to MSP 12:38, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.