tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Santa Ana → Minneapolis via Chicago: arrives on time 32%

  1. 15:11 SNA → 21:49 ORD
    AA 2640 · American · 4h 39m · 67% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:36 ORD → 00:22 MSP +1 day
    AA 4472 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 46m · 73% on time, 14.3% cancelled

Total trip 7h 11m, scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 2 h ahead of Santa Ana). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection53%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 47% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time32%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (53%) × second flight not cancelled (14.3% are) and within 15 minutes (73%).
Total trip7h 11mSNA 15:11 to MSP 00:22, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.