tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Portland → Bozeman via Phoenix: arrives on time 60%

  1. 05:20 PDX → 08:00 PHX
    AA 2658 · American · 2h 40m · 90% on time, 1.0% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 08:55 PHX → 12:40 BZN
    AA 6416 · American, flown by SkyWest · 2h 45m · 68% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 20m, scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 1 h ahead of Portland). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection88%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 12% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time60%First flight not cancelled (1.0% are) × connection made (88%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip6h 20mPDX 05:20 to BZN 12:40, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.