tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Everett via Santa Ana: arrives on time 71%

  1. 14:15 PHX → 15:33 SNA
    AA 2659 · American · 1h 18m · 73% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 3h 23m layover in Santa Ana (SNA) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 18:56 SNA → 21:40 PAE
    AS 2116 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 2h 44m · 80% on time, 2.5% cancelled

Total trip 7h 25m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection90%The first flight arrived more than 113 minutes late on 10% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 3h 23m layover.
Arrives on time71%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (90%) × second flight not cancelled (2.5% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip7h 25mPHX 14:15 to PAE 21:40, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.