tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Santa Ana → Minneapolis via Phoenix: arrives on time 51%

  1. 16:30 SNA → 17:56 PHX
    AA 2659 · American · 1h 26m · 80% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 54m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:50 PHX → 23:58 MSP
    AA 3142 · American · 3h 08m · 66% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 28m, scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 2 h ahead of Santa Ana). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection77%The first flight arrived more than 9 minutes late on 23% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 54m layover.
Arrives on time51%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (77%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (66%).
Total trip5h 28mSNA 16:30 to MSP 23:58, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.