tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Santa Ana → New York via Phoenix: arrives on time 50%

  1. 09:49 SNA → 11:12 PHX
    AA 2660 · American · 1h 23m · 93% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 41m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 12:53 PHX → 21:00 JFK
    AA 1224 · American · 5h 07m · 53% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 8h 11m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection97%The first flight arrived more than 56 minutes late on 3% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 41m layover.
Arrives on time50%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (97%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (53%).
Total trip8h 11mSNA 09:49 to JFK 21:00, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.