tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Santa Ana → Charlotte via Chicago: arrives on time 45%

  1. 11:31 SNA → 17:55 ORD
    AA 2679 · American · 4h 29m · 77% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 52m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:47 ORD → 21:59 CLT
    AA 689 · American · 2h 12m · 68% on time, 2.4% cancelled

Total trip 7h 28m, scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 7 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 52m layover.
Arrives on time45%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (2.4% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip7h 28mSNA 11:31 to CLT 21:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.