tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Santa Ana → Detroit via Chicago: arrives on time 40%

  1. 11:31 SNA → 17:55 ORD
    AA 2679 · American · 4h 29m · 77% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 01m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:56 ORD → 21:34 DTW
    AA 4931 · American, flown by SkyWest · 1h 37m · 57% on time, 6.9% cancelled

Total trip 7h 02m, scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection78%The first flight arrived more than 16 minutes late on 22% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 01m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (78%) × second flight not cancelled (6.9% are) and within 15 minutes (57%).
Total trip7h 02mSNA 11:31 to DTW 21:34, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.