tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Tampa via Charlotte: arrives on time 32%

  1. 12:00 ORD → 15:08 CLT
    AA 2681 · American · 2h 08m · 76% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 49m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:57 CLT → 17:41 TPA
    AA 2777 · American · 1h 44m · 53% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 41m, scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection61%The first flight arrived more than 4 minutes late on 39% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 49m layover.
Arrives on time32%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (61%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (53%).
Total trip4h 41mORD 12:00 to TPA 17:41, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.