tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Wilmington via Charlotte: arrives on time 58%

  1. 12:00 ORD → 15:08 CLT
    AA 2681 · American · 2h 08m · 76% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 16m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:24 CLT → 17:41 ILM
    AA 6116 · American, flown by Piedmont · 1h 17m · 71% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 4h 41m, scheduled departure to arrival (Wilmington is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection83%The first flight arrived more than 31 minutes late on 17% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 16m layover.
Arrives on time58%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (83%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (71%).
Total trip4h 41mORD 12:00 to ILM 17:41, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.