tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Santa Ana → Washington via New York: arrives on time 45%

  1. 11:48 SNA → 20:29 JFK
    AA 2683 · American · 5h 41m · 67% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 12m layover in New York (JFK) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:41 JFK → 23:23 DCA
    AA 4336 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 42m · 76% on time, 15.7% cancelled

Total trip 8h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 27 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 12m layover.
Arrives on time45%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (15.7% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip8h 35mSNA 11:48 to DCA 23:23, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.