tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Santa Ana → Miami via Phoenix: arrives on time 50%

  1. 19:32 SNA → 20:57 PHX
    AA 2685 · American · 1h 25m · 71% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 03m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:00 PHX → 05:22 MIA +1 day
    AA 2205 · American · 4h 22m · 68% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 6h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection75%The first flight arrived more than 18 minutes late on 25% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 03m layover.
Arrives on time50%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (75%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip6h 50mSNA 19:32 to MIA 05:22, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.