tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Santa Ana → Orlando via Phoenix: arrives on time 49%

  1. 19:32 SNA → 20:57 PHX
    AA 2685 · American · 1h 25m · 71% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 54m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:51 PHX → 05:00 MCO +1 day
    AA 563 · American · 4h 09m · 73% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 28m, scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 9 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 54m layover.
Arrives on time49%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (73%).
Total trip6h 28mSNA 19:32 to MCO 05:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.