tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → New York via Charlotte: arrives on time 30%

  1. 17:34 ORD → 20:50 CLT
    AA 2695 · American · 2h 16m · 62% on time, 4.8% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:40 CLT → 23:30 LGA
    AA 2068 · American · 1h 53m · 66% on time, 5.6% cancelled

Total trip 4h 59m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 26 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection51%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 49% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (4.8% are) × connection made (51%) × second flight not cancelled (5.6% are) and within 15 minutes (66%).
Total trip4h 59mORD 17:34 to LGA 23:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.