tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Tampa via Philadelphia: arrives on time 64%

  1. 00:48 SFO → 09:20 PHL
    AA 2695 · American · 5h 32m · 73% on time, 7.1% cancelled
  2. 3h 35m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 12:55 PHL → 15:37 TPA
    AA 2838 · American · 2h 42m · 69% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 11h 49m, scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Times are local. Both flew on 28 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection100%The first flight arrived more than 170 minutes late on 0% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 35m layover.
Arrives on time64%First flight not cancelled (7.1% are) × connection made (100%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (69%).
Total trip11h 49mSFO 00:48 to TPA 15:37, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.