tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Washington via Boston: arrives on time 78%

  1. 21:45 PHX → 05:45 BOS
    AA 2701 · American · 5h 00m · 87% on time, 2.1% cancelled
  2. 1h 15m layover in Boston (BOS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 07:00 BOS → 09:00 DCA +1 day
    AA 4505 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 00m · 89% on time, 4.6% cancelled

Total trip 8h 15m, scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 47 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection95%The first flight arrived more than 30 minutes late on 5% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 15m layover.
Arrives on time78%First flight not cancelled (2.1% are) × connection made (95%) × second flight not cancelled (4.6% are) and within 15 minutes (89%).
Total trip8h 15mPHX 21:45 to DCA 09:00, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.