tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Houston → Jacksonville via Phoenix: arrives on time 53%

  1. 14:25 IAH → 15:16 PHX
    AA 2710 · American · 2h 53m · 80% on time, 1.6% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:09 PHX → 23:15 JAX
    AA 2844 · American · 4h 06m · 74% on time, 0.3% cancelled

Total trip 7h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival (Jacksonville is 1 h ahead of Houston). Times are local. Both flew on 47 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time53%First flight not cancelled (1.6% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (0.3% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip7h 50mIAH 14:25 to JAX 23:15, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.