tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dallas-Fort Worth → Chicago via St Louis: arrives on time 19%

  1. 14:41 DFW → 16:28 STL
    AA 2712 · American · 1h 47m · 32% on time, 4.8% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in St Louis (STL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:19 STL → 19:12 ORD
    AA 4537 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 53m · 79% on time, 8.3% cancelled

Total trip 4h 31m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 49 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection27%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 73% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time19%First flight not cancelled (4.8% are) × connection made (27%) × second flight not cancelled (8.3% are) and within 15 minutes (79%).
Total trip4h 31mDFW 14:41 to ORD 19:12, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.