tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

St Louis → Cleveland via Philadelphia: arrives on time 45%

  1. 17:48 STL → 21:10 PHL
    AA 2714 · American · 2h 22m · 73% on time, 8.6% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:00 PHL → 23:39 CLE
    AA 2253 · American · 1h 39m · 74% on time, 4.9% cancelled

Total trip 4h 51m, scheduled departure to arrival (Cleveland is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Times are local. Both flew on 45 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time45%First flight not cancelled (8.6% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (4.9% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip4h 51mSTL 17:48 to CLE 23:39, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.