tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

St Louis → Las Vegas via Philadelphia: arrives on time 44%

  1. 17:48 STL → 21:10 PHL
    AA 2714 · American · 2h 22m · 73% on time, 8.6% cancelled
  2. 1h 03m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:13 PHL → 00:32 LAS +1 day
    AA 3250 · American · 5h 19m · 65% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 8h 44m, scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind St Louis). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 18 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 03m layover.
Arrives on time44%First flight not cancelled (8.6% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (65%).
Total trip8h 44mSTL 17:48 to LAS 00:32, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.