tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

St Louis → Detroit via Philadelphia: arrives on time 46%

  1. 17:48 STL → 21:10 PHL
    AA 2714 · American · 2h 22m · 73% on time, 8.6% cancelled
  2. 54m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:04 PHL → 23:59 DTW
    AA 5169 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 55m · 80% on time, 10.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 11m, scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 9 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 54m layover.
Arrives on time46%First flight not cancelled (8.6% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (10.9% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip5h 11mSTL 17:48 to DTW 23:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.