tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Miami → Louisville via Washington: arrives on time 25%

  1. 16:31 MIA → 18:59 DCA
    AA 2716 · American · 2h 28m · 78% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:45 DCA → 21:40 SDF
    AA 4672 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 55m · 72% on time, 6.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 09m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 0 of the last 56 days, too few to list among the best connections.

Makes the connection38%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 62% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time25%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (38%) × second flight not cancelled (6.9% are) and within 15 minutes (72%).
Total trip5h 09mMIA 16:31 to SDF 21:40, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.