tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Washington via Philadelphia: arrives on time 30%

  1. 09:49 SFO → 18:28 PHL
    AA 2722 · American · 5h 39m · 71% on time, 0.6% cancelled
  2. 57m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:25 PHL → 20:41 DCA
    AA 5019 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 16m · 54% on time, 16.3% cancelled

Total trip 7h 52m, scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Times are local. Both flew on 37 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (0.6% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (16.3% are) and within 15 minutes (54%).
Total trip7h 52mSFO 09:49 to DCA 20:41, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.