tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dallas-Fort Worth → Nashville via Tampa: arrives on time 35%

  1. 12:20 DFW → 15:51 TPA
    AA 2747 · American · 2h 31m · 55% on time, 4.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 04m layover in Tampa (TPA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:55 TPA → 17:59 BNA
    AA 3823 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 04m · 66% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 5h 39m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 26 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection57%The first flight arrived more than 19 minutes late on 43% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 04m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (4.8% are) × connection made (57%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (66%).
Total trip5h 39mDFW 12:20 to BNA 17:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.